Vali Nasr on Iran-Israel Conflict: Strategy & Fallout

Iran’s Resilience and Strategy: Vali Nasr on the Iran–Israel Conflict

By [Your Name], July 25, 2025

Introduction: Conflict Beyond the Headlines

The June 2025 conflict between Iran and Israel—marked by Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iranian nuclear and military installations and Iran’s retaliatory missile launches—has reshaped geopolitical calculus across the Middle East and beyond. Drawing upon expert commentary by Vali Nasr, a former U.S. State Department adviser and respected scholar on Iran’s grand strategy, this analysis explores the origins, developments, and future implications of the Israel–Iran confrontation.

🔍 Who Is Vali Nasr?

Vali Nasr is an Iranian‑American academic, author of Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History, and former U.S. government adviser. His expertise spans Iran’s ideological foundations, foreign policy doctrines, and resistance strategy across the region. Nasr frequently publishes in The New York Times, Time, and other outlets, offering insights into Tehran’s evolving posture.1

1. Operation Rising Lion: Israel’s Preemptive Campaign (13–14 June 2025)

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion,” targeting more than 100 sites across Iran with over 200 fighter jets, striking nuclear facilities—including the Natanz enrichment plant and Isfahan research centers—as well as IRGC command centers. High-ranking officials were reportedly killed, including IRGC commander Hossein Salami and nuclear scientists such as Fereydoon Abbasi‑Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi.2

This bold move marked a departure from decades of proxy engagements, breaching Iranian territory directly. The assault sent shockwaves through the global community and set the stage for Iran's decisive retaliation.

2. Iran’s Response: Operation True Promise III

Following the strikes, Iran launched extensive missile and drone attacks, dubbed “Operation True Promise III,” launching over 150 ballistic missiles and more than 100 drones at Israeli targets including cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv. Casualty reports included both military and civilian losses. Analysts described it as Iran’s most direct response in its history.3

3. Economic Fallout: Iran’s Fragile State Under Pressure

The 12-day war inflicted severe economic damage on Iran. Oil exports fell roughly 94%, resulting in nearly $1.4 billion in lost revenue. Iran's military expenditure escalated with missile costs reaching up to $5 billion during the conflict. Widespread damage across 21 provinces, including airports and energy infrastructure, intensified existing economic stress. Iran’s currency plunged to approximately 1.3 million rials per USD amid inflation rates exceeding 40–50% annually.4

An Iranian MP admitted to parliament that the economy lacked resilience for prolonged warfare, and the loss of scientific talent—due to the killing of nuclear scientists—had long-term implications on both human capital and strategic memory.5

4. Vali Nasr’s Strategic Analysis: Statecraft Over Ideology

Nasr emphasizes that Iran’s strategy is not rooted in religious zeal, but in a doctrine he terms **“forward defense”**: projecting influence through proxies to protect Iranian sovereignty and deter enemies without direct conventional confrontation.6

Although the conflict inflicted structural damage, Nasr stresses Iran’s resilience: the state remains intact, ideology endures, and the leadership continues to pursue its strategic vision. Rather than collapse, Tehran may pivot from ideological rhetoric toward nationalist appeals to consolidate domestic support.7

He warns that while Israel may have succeeded tactically, it miscalculated Iran’s capacity to absorb pressure. Iran has managed to survive structurally stronger than many analysts presumed.8

5. Nuclear Tensions and Diplomatic Deadlock

In early 2025, Iran expanded its uranium enrichment—stockpiling over 400kg of 60% purity uranium, just below weapons-grade levels—markedly increasing nuclear proliferation risk. Negotiations with the U.S. resumed in Oman and Italy in April and May, but were interrupted by renewed military escalation. Tehran reaffirmed its commitment to enrichment and halted cooperation with IAEA inspectors in the wake of airstrikes.9

European diplomats—representing the E3 (UK, France, Germany)—met with Iranian officials in Istanbul on July 25, 2025. They proposed delaying snapback sanctions in exchange for restored IAEA engagement. Iran insisted on rebuilding trust and recognition of its enrichment rights under the NPT before meaningful diplomacy can resume.10

6. Regional Dynamics: Qatar’s Diplomatic Role Amid Turmoil

During the conflict, Qatar emerged as a key peacemaker, helping broker a fragile ceasefire between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. despite coming under missile fire itself. Qatar’s role underscores its evolving identity as a global mediator amid regional isolation.11

Meanwhile, relations between the U.S. (under President Trump) and Israel humbled tensions, as Netanyahu’s unilateral strikes began to diverge from broader U.S. diplomatic priorities, notably in Syria and Gaza.12

7. Scenarios Ahead: Nasr’s Prognosis

Drawing on Vali Nasr’s analysis and broader commentary, three plausible futures emerge:

1. Diplomatic off‑ramp: Iran accepts terms to restore IAEA cooperation and gain limited sanctions relief. A tenuous calm might return if both sides compromise, though lasting peace seems unlikely.13
2. Further escalation: Iran may respond by targeting shipping lanes or energy facilities, prompting oil prices to spike above $100/barrel and pushing markets toward safe assets.14
3. Internal instability: Economic collapse, war casualties, societal disillusionment, or elite fractures may weaken Tehran domestically. Though regime collapse seems unlikely in short term, continued repression and executions may sow dissent.15

8. Internal Shifts: From Revolutionary Zeal to Nationalist Appeal

Nasr believes that the Islamic Republic may pivot—softening theocratic rhetoric in favor of national unity narratives. This reflects his view that Iran’s leadership realizes it must reconnect with ordinary citizens to maintain stability.16

However, internal repression continues: courts have expedited executions, protesters face harsh punishments, and political dissent remains tightly controlled. Analysts warn of a potential repeat of Iran’s 1988 mass killings.17

Internal Links for Further Reading

• Profile: Vali Nasr – In-depth look at the author behind the strategic analysis.
• Iran’s Grand Strategy – Evolution of Tehran’s regional security doctrine.
• Operation Rising Lion – Detailed coverage of Israel’s preemptive airstrikes.
• Operation True Promise Series – Iran’s history of missile retaliation operations.
• Nuclear Diplomacy Deadlock – Timeline of negotiations and enrichment controversies.
• Qatar’s Diplomatic Role – Qatar’s mediation strategies in the Gulf.

---

Subscribe for daily coverage on Iran, the Middle East, and global strategic trends.